Do survey joiners and leavers differ from regular participants? The US SPF GDP growth and inflation forecasts

If ‘learning by doing’ is important for macro-forecasting, newcomers might be different from regular, established participants. Stayers may also differ from the soon-to-leave. We test these conjectures for macro-forecasters’ point predictions of output growth and inflation, and for their histogram forecasts. Histogram forecasts of inflation by both joiners and leavers are found to be less accurate, especially if we suppose that joiners take time to learn. For GDP growth, there is no evidence of differences between the groups in terms of histogram forecast accuracy, although GDP point forecasts by leavers are less accurate. These findings are predicated on forecasters being homogeneous within groups. Allowing for individual fixed effects suggests fewer differences, including leavers’ inflation histogram forecasts being no less accurate.     

Assessing the uncertainty in central banks’ inflation outlooks

Recent research has found that macroeconomic survey forecasts of uncertainty exhibit several deficiencies, such as horizon-dependent biases and lower levels of accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation uncertainty forecasts from the Bank of England, the Banco Central do Brasil, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank and the Sveriges Riksbank to assess whether central banks’ uncertainty forecasts might be subject to similar problems. We find that, while most central banks’ uncertainty forecasts also tend to be underconfident at short horizons and overconfident at longer horizons, they are mostly not significantly biased. Moreover, they tend to be at least as precise as unconditional uncertainty forecasts from two different approaches.     

An examination of the congruence and incongruence between employee actual and customer perceived emotional labor

This study examines the effects of the congruence and incongruence between employee actual and customer perceived emotional labor on customer trust. Based on data collected from 510 service employee and customer dyads in restaurants, the results of response surface modeling indicate that customer trust is higher when employee deep acting and customer perceived deep acting are both high rather than both low. Customer trust is also higher when customer perceived deep acting is higher than employee actual deep acting rather than vice versa. The effects are different in surface acting: as employee surface acting and customer perceived surface acting increase, customer trust initially decreases, then increases, exhibiting a U‐shaped effect. Implications for both theory and practice are discussed.     

精密深孔钻床的设计与实现

针对当前钻孔设备中低档设备精度低、效率低,而高档设备结构复杂、成本高的缺陷,基于PLC技术设计了一种"高精度、高效率、低成本、易操作"的数控高精度钻孔机床,保证了产品质量,提高了生产效率,降低了生产成本。同时,对相关构件进行创新设计,实现了高精度加工和成倍提高钻孔效率。     

Has The Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Germany Improved?

This study asks whether the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts for Germany has improved over time. We examine one‐year‐ahead forecasts of rates of real GDP growth and inflation for the years 1967–2010, by three major German forecasters and the OECD. We find that overall error levels are high but not much different from those of the U.S. and U.K. In the 1980s and 1990s accuracy improved somewhat, but has now returned to its 1970s level, indicating that it reflects the variance of growth and inflation. Benchmark comparisons with these predictions with ex post forecasts of a macroeconometric model indicate that accuracy can be improved, but it will be difficult to achieve.     

Determinants of employee willingness to use feedback for performance improvement: cultural and organizational interpretations

This study was designed to identify determinants of employee willingness to use feedback for performance improvement. The proposed determinants included objectives of appraisal, supervisor's knowledge of subordinate's job, agreed plan for performance improvement, trust in supervisor and perceived fairness and accuracy of performance evaluation. Data were collected in two phases. The first phase consisted of a questionnaire survey among 100 Hong Kong Chinese employees working in public and private sector organizations. Regression analysis of questionnaire data indicated that agreed plan for performance improvement and perceived fairness and accuracy of performance evaluation had significant positive effects on employee willingness to use performance feedback. In the second phase, focus group interviews were held to triangulate survey findings. Interview data suggested that Chinese cultural characteristics of paternalism and personalism influenced the underlying dynamics of the evaluation process. Findings are interpreted in the context of employees cultural and organizational background.     

On the Use of Intra-Industry Information to Improve Earnings Forecasts

We investigate whether earnings forecasts are improved by earlier earnings disclosures by firms in the same industry. We find improvements for time series forecasts, but not for analysts' forecasts. Considering prior earnings announcements reduces correlations between forecast errors and security price reactions to earnings announcements, even when incorporating these announcements improves forecast accuracy. Our explanation for this anomaly, which is supported by additional analysis, is that intra-industry information facilitates predicting transitory, rather than permanent, earnings components. The question of whether information transfers improve earnings forecasts provides the context for the analysis, but the primary contribution is the documentation of intra-industry information transfers in a setting other than capital markets.     

The Problems of Accounting Standards

The main purpose of company accounts is stewardship, so accounting standards based on ‘decision‐usefulness for investors’ are misconceived. And making the standards compulsory ‘Instructions’ rather than voluntary ‘Suggestions’ causes many additional problems. All we really need is the Companies Act requirement for accounts to show ‘a true and fair view’.     

指数平滑法在路面平整度预测中的应用

通过对路面平整度指数IRI随时间发展规律的分析与研究,提出采用指数平滑法来提高预测精度。经工程实例分析表明,使用该模型可以很好地预测路面平整度的发展,是一种有效而实用的方法。     

供应商集中度影响管理层业绩预告行为吗？——基于业绩预告精确性及其预告态度的视角

基于中国企业间关系信任的历史禀赋与现实情境,以2010-2017年A股公司业绩预告为样本,考察供应商集中度对业绩预告精确性与预告态度的影响。研究发现：供应商集中度越高,管理层业绩预告的精确性越低,预告态度也越倾向乐观。进一步研究发现：供应商集中度对业绩预告的精确性负向影响在业绩预告修正情况下作用更明显,在业绩预告未修正时企业更倾向于乐观的业绩预告;同时企业在自愿披露业绩预告情况下,供应商集中度对业绩预告精确性的反向作用更为显著,企业越倾向于披露乐观的业绩预告。以上研究为理解外部利益相关者与企业未来盈利预测之间的关系提供了直接的经验证据,丰富和拓展了供应商关系型交易影响企业信息披露策略选择的研究。